At the beginning of the week, commodity markets the world over were eying the Euro summit. At MCX, speculations of a failure saw precious metal prices rise whereas the base metals and energy went down. As the week went by, the concerns abated seeing the trend reverse. While the euro zone concerns has been momentarily eased, all the attention is now on the US as the debt ceiling issue hits world headlines .

MCX Gold and Silver ended the week with gains.

(July 18-July 22)

The metals rose on concerns of Euro debt crisis but settled lower after the talks led to positive conclusion.

Gold: Opened Monday at 23387 to settle at 23407 on Friday

Silver: Opened Monday at 58700 to settle at 59624 on Friday

(July 25-July 30)

Indications of the US debt ceiling issue.- even if the government raises the limit, precious metals may surge if the debt ceiling is raised by compromising future economic growth.

MCX Gold August: Dips to 22900/22800 to hold for 23300/23450 now. However, a strong consolidation below 22900 could slow down the pace of the momentum.
S1 22880 S2 22500 R1 23200 R2 23360

MCX Silver September: Momentum looks bullish; resistance is seen near 60300/61500 now.
S1 57500 S2 56000 R1 60300 R2 61500

MCX base metals saw choppy action this week after disappointing Chinese PMI data created apprehension the market only to be redeemed later by the euro zone Greek bailout.

(July 18-July 22)

–China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.9 in July from a final reading of 50.1 in June, according a preliminary HSBC survey. Negative impact

– Euro zone talks ended with a confirmation of Greek bailout. Positive impact

– Speculators reduced their Copper net longs for first time in 3 weeks. Negative impact

Zinc: Opened Monday at 105.40 and close Friday at 109.15, gaining more than 3.50% to become the only base metal that ended with gains.

Copper: August contract ended down at 433.50 on Friday after opening at 434.65 on Monday.

Lead: Lead July contract opened Monday at 120.80 only to close on Friday at 119.50.

Nickel: July contract fell over Rs 10 to close Friday at 1064.50 after opening Monday at 1076.70.

(July 25-July 30)

– Any indication of the final Chinese PMI data for July due on August 1.

– Any report from the US that might indicate what will possibly happen on the decision on debt ceiling due on August 2

– Speculator positions on copper. Do their net longs increase or fall further.

MCX Zinc July: Prices to trade in between 103 – 107.20 now, break of either level could decide the momentum. S1 103 S2 100 R1 107.20 R2 110.60

MCX Copper August: Prices to trade in between 430 – 442 now, break of either level could decide the momentum. S1 432 S2 427 R1 442 R2 445

MCX Lead July: Above 121, prices could target 124/126 now. S1 118 S2 115 R1 121 R2 124

MCX Nickel July: Dips to 1070 to hold for 1100 now. S1 1068 S2 1042 R1 1100 R2 1130

MCX Crude settled higher while Nat gas lower

(July 18-July 22)

– Oil traded lower on Euro concerns but picked up to close higher as possibilities of a resolution increased.

– Nat gas – forecast of milder weather. Negative impact

Crude oil: After opening Monday at 4369, closed at 4449 on Friday, up by Rs 80.

Natural gas: Opened at 202.70 on Monday and lost Rs 6.80 to close on Friday at 195.90

(July 25-July30)

– EIA report on US crude inventories due on Wednesday and news of any IEA crude supply releases

– For Nat gas, look for weather forecast in US and also inventory data due on Thursday

MCX Copper August: Prices to trade in between 430 – 442 now, break of either level could decide the momentum. S1 432 S2 427 R1 442 R2 445

MCX/ NCDEX Crude July: Prices to trade in between 4290 – 4420 now, break of either level could decide the momentum. S1 4290 S2 4200 R1 4420 R2 4460

 

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